Company Update / Healthcare / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Andrianto Saputra ;Lukito Supriadi
- 1Q24 EBITDA of Rp499bn (+47.9% yoy/+14.9% qoq), came above our/consensus estimate at 32/31%; revenue/NP also came as a beat.
- Robust 1Q24 EBITDA margin was driven by strong topline growth and lower drugs cost/sales ratio.
- We maintain BUY rating with TP of Rp1,900/sh.
1Q24 net profit came above ours/consensus FY24F estimates
delivered strong 1Q24 net profit of Rp191bn (+75.3% yoy/+115.7% qoq) and this was above ours/consensus estimate at 32/31% (vs. 5yr avg exclude Covid period of 26%). 1Q24 EBITDA recovered to Rp499bn (+47.9% yoy/+14.9% qoq) with EBITDA margin of 29.2% (vs. 25/28% in 1Q23/4Q23), also above ours/consensus estimate at 28%. 1Q24 net sales grew significantly by 26% yoy to Rp1.7tr (+9.8% qoq), also above. To note, 1Q24 top-line growth was driven by inpatient revenue growth (+32.8% yoy/+13.1% qoq). Overall, 1Q24 achievement was above company guidance of top-line growth of 15% yoy and EBITDA margin of c.28.7% in FY24F.
1Q24 margin improvement was driven by operating leverage
1Q24 inpatient revenue as % of revenue rose to 60.7% (+305bps yoy/+181bps qoq) which the company mentioned that inpatient traffic was partly driven by dengue hemorrhagic fever (DBD) as we have discussed previously(link). 1Q24 GPM improved to 39.2% (+177bps yoy/+518bps qoq) was driven by lower drugs cost as % of sales (-190bps yoy/-66bps qoq) and depreciation as % of sales (-68bps yoy/-304bos qoq). With 26.2% top-line growth, opex to sales improved significantly to 19.8% (-364bps yoy/-369bps qoq). 1Q24 minorities interest as % of NPAT normalized to 21.7% (vs. 20.4/24.9% in 1Q23/4Q23) and this should alleviate investors' recent concern on a higher minorities interest as % of NPAT in 4Q23.
Maintain BUY with TP of Rp1,900/sh
We are reviewing our forecast as we await details from the earnings call. For now, we maintain our BUY rating on with unchanged TP of Rp1,900/sh, based on 16.5x FY24F EV/EBITDA (+1s.d. from its 5yr avg). Key risks are lower than expected traffic and revenue intensity.
Sumber : IPS